Efficacy of early warning systems in assessing country-level risk exposure to COVID-19
نویسندگان
چکیده
COVID-19 has evolved as a pandemic causing unprecedented damages and disruptions to all spheres of life including healthcare, transportation, supply chains, education, economy, among others. Pandemics are very low-probability events associated with deep uncertainty about the timing such ensuing damages. National policy-makers generally rely on set risk indices natural disasters pandemics assess country’s vulnerability strategy formulation for rare events. This paper explores efficacy early warning systems (disasters epidemics-based ratings) in predicting country-level exposure COVID-19. Utilizing three real data-sets reflecting individual countries disasters, epidemics, COVID-19, we explore relations dimensions, namely hazard exposure, vulnerability, lack coping capacity. A comprehensive methodology integrating Pearson’s correlation, ANOVA, Bayesian Belief Networks-based techniques is adopted triangulate indices. Results show that ratings epidemic statistically strongly correlated. However, only dimension significantly influences two risks.
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk
سال: 2021
ISSN: ['1947-5705', '1947-5713']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/19475705.2021.1962984